Case Study
SignalRelay / Alphanet Core
Polymarket signal oracle that sells its Bayesian edge for $0.01 USDC per call over x402 on Base, now with a public track record joined to real market resolutions. Alphanet Core, its diverged equities-data twin, verifies x402 settlement on-chain and books its own unit-economics P&L.
Executive Summary
SignalRelay is an autonomous Polymarket sentiment oracle that earns USDC by selling its Bayesian trading edge: any agent can pay $0.01 USDC on Base via x402 and get a calibrated signal. Since the hackathon it grew the thing paid signals actually need — a public track record where every logged signal is joined to the market's real resolution, so buyers can check calibration before paying. Alphanet Core, its diverged equities-data twin, verifies x402 settlement on-chain via raw JSON-RPC and books its own unit-economics P&L.
Problem & Constraints
Downstream trading agents need probabilistic edge, not subscriptions — but nobody should buy signals from an oracle that can't prove its history. Constraints: the LLM only parses sentiment (all math is deterministic and clamped), demo data is labeled demo end-to-end, and verified vs unverified payments are never conflated.
Architecture
Provider (FastAPI + x402 ASGI) watches Polymarket + news → clamped Bayesian posterior → paywalled rationale endpoint → signal log joined to real Polymarket resolutions → public track-record + calibration pages. Alphanet: settlement verification reads receipt tx hashes on-chain (fail-safe: unverified stays unverified) with global tx-hash consumption against replay.
Methodology
- LLM as parser only; deterministic Bayesian update, posterior clamped away from 0/1 so one headline can never produce certainty
- Track-record system: signals logged at emit time, joined to actual market resolutions, with a calibration view — no self-graded scores
- chf research engine underneath: point-in-time universes, leakage-audited features, deterministic seeds, in-sample/out-of-sample tearsheet
- x402 fail-hard startup (no silent free mode); the free demo route returns a truncated teaser, not the paid payload
- Alphanet receipt verification reads the chain directly (raw JSON-RPC), with replay protection via global tx-hash consumption — a review-caught exploit, fixed and re-walked
- Paper trading by default; LIVE mode requires an explicit key behind per-trade caps, drawdown limits, and a kill switch
Results & Metrics
| Metric | Result |
|---|---|
| Payment | $0.01 USDC/call, live-verified debit on Base Sepolia |
| Track record | Signals joined to real Polymarket resolutions |
| chf research tests | 246 passed (full suite) |
| Backend tests | 82 passed |
| Alphanet tests | 85 passed, incl. settlement replay coverage |
Tech Stack
Python, FastAPI, x402, Privy, Base, USDC, Polymarket API, Postgres/SQLite
Future Work
Mainnet pricing + abuse limits, slippage model for paper fills, multi-market signal catalog.